Pada Ogos 2010 “Sekiranya emas bukan antara $1,500 dan $2,000 USD dalam berikutnya 18bulan, jangkaan saya salah.” kata ahli strategi pelaburan utama John Embry, Sprott Asset Management. Tetapi jangkaan beliau adalah tepat sekali.
Harga emas pertama kali mencecahi semula $1,200 pada November 2009 masa itu pasaran riuh dengan “bull fever” di atas jangkaan US central bank akan memulakan “Quantitative Easing” dengan mencetak lagi wang kertas. Selain itu khabar berita yang China mahu memperluaskan pasaran emasnya juga menambah kepada keghairahan emas. The People's Bank of China telah mengumumkannya akan membenarkan lebih banyak bank perdagangan untuk import dan eksport emas di Shanghai Gold Exchange.
Embry meramalkan harga emas disebabkan oleh kekurangan optimisme untuk “pemulihan ekonomi yg berkekalan di dunia barat” dan kepercayaannya yang kerajaan-kerajaan akan meneruskan mencetak wang dgn banyak diluar jangkaan anda
Menurut satu tinjauan Gold Investing News menjalankan berdasarkan ramalan Embry, kebanayakan pembaca iaitu Lebih daripada 35 peratus dariapada 373 responden merasakan Embry ialah “tepat sekali!” manakala satu lagi hampir 35 peratus menyatakan emas akan mencapai lebih tinggi daripada $2,000 satu auns.
Walau bagaimanapun pada masa itu ramalan Embry bagi emas menghampiri tahap $2,000 pada 2012 kelihatan kurang optimistik bagi sesetengah penganalisis kerana hanya atas setahun kemudian, harga emas telah pun mencapai satu rekod $1,923satu auns — sebelum jatuh ke belakang di bawah $1,800 minggu lepas. Walaupun emas gagal mengekalkan pada tahap itu buat masa ini, ramai penganalisis percaya emas boleh mencapai $2,000 satu auns tak lama lagi malah lebih dalam 2012.
Walau bagaimanapun pada masa itu ramalan Embry bagi emas menghampiri tahap $2,000 pada 2012 kelihatan kurang optimistik bagi sesetengah penganalisis kerana hanya atas setahun kemudian, harga emas telah pun mencapai satu rekod $1,923satu auns — sebelum jatuh ke belakang di bawah $1,800 minggu lepas. Walaupun emas gagal mengekalkan pada tahap itu buat masa ini, ramai penganalisis percaya emas boleh mencapai $2,000 satu auns tak lama lagi malah lebih dalam 2012.
Kali ini Embry meramalkan harga emas akan mencecah $2500USD dalam masa 12 bulan.
Banyak institusi keewangan utama dunia hari ini meramalkan harga emas akan mencapai $2000 per ounce dan lebih pada tahun 2012 antaranya:
Barclays Capital
“We expect prices to average $1,875 per ounce in the fourth quarter 2011 and $2,000 per ounce on an annual average basis in 2012 as the macro insecurity persists, investor appetite remains positive and central banks are set to remain net buyers while the physical market continues to provide support at increasingly higher levels,” saidBarclays Capital analyst, Suki Cooper.
Citigroup
If sovereign debt woes explode, gold may “briefly spike” to between $2,000 and $2,500 an ounce over the next year, remaining above an average $1,200 in the long-term, said Citigroup Inc.
Commerzbank
“I believe gold will still be a very heavily demanded safe-haven trade,” says Axel Rudolph, Commerzbank technical strategist, who believes gold may reach $2,000 in October on “another crisis.”
GFMS
According to the most recent Thomson Reuters GFMS Gold Survey 2011 update, gold could “easily” reach above $2,000 an ounce by the end of this year on continuing sovereign debt concerns and volatility in the currency markets. “We expect a major increase in world investment in the second half of this year.”
HSBC
HSBC is forecasting a gold price of $2,025 an ounce for 2012 and $1,850 an ounce for 2013. “We believe gold’s 10-year bull market remains firmly intact, despite high volatility, with prices up 29 percent already this year,” said the global banking and financial services company. “The euro zone debt crisis, currency wars, and deep uncertainty among investors are among the factors driving prices higher.”
Morgan Stanley
According to Morgan Stanley analysts, gold has about an 85 percent chance of trading between $1,819 an ounce and $2,085 an ounce in 2012.
Societe Generale
“We expect investor momentum to take gold through $2,000 an ounce before the end of 2011,” says Societe Generale. The bank sees the price of gold reaching $2,275 an ounce in 2012. “The gold market is underpinned by the ‘grass roots’ demand and this appears to be remarkably resilient.”
TD Securities
TD Securities expects gold “to hit highs of well above $2,000/oz. in the coming months on lower bond yields, expectations of poor risky assets returns and general risk aversion owing to uncertain global economic conditions.” Its gold forecast puts the yellow metal at $1,975 in 2012 and $1,750 in 2013.
UBS
“Our expectations for gold in 2012 and beyond are governed to a large extent by our expectations for US interest rates and the health of the global economy,” said UBS, which has pinned its 2012 average gold price at $2,075 an ounce with a forecast of $1,725 for 2013.